For Zambia, a rise in US government bond yields is more than a Wall Street development. It can influence how expensive it becomes for the country to borrow abroad, how investors price Zambian assets and how much pressure the kwacha faces against the dollar.The yield on the US 30-year Treasury rose to around 5.44% on Thursday, its highest level since 2004, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed above 5.1%.The move matters because US Treasury yields form a reference point for borrowing costs across much of the global financial system. When those yields rise, emerging markets such as Zambia can face higher financing costs even when their own domestic interest rates have not changed.The immediate trigger was a combination of stronger-than-expected US economic activity, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and rising oil prices.For Zambia, however, the bigger question is what a prolonged period of higher global interest rates means for a country still rebuilding its fiscal and external position after years of debt stress.<h3>Why Zambia should pay attention</h3>US Treasury securities sit at the centre of the global financial system. They are widely used as a benchmark for pricing other forms of debt.When Treasury yields rise, investors can demand higher returns from riskier assets as well.For an emerging market such as Zambia, that can increase the cost of accessing international capital.A Zambian government or company seeking to borrow in international markets does not compete with US Treasuries on equal terms. Investors generally demand an additional risk premium for lending to countries perceived to carry greater economic, currency or credit risk.If the underlying US interest rate rises, the overall cost of borrowing can therefore increase even if Zambia's own risk premium remains unchanged.<h3>The dollar channel</h3>Higher US yields can also make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to international investors.That can contribute to capital moving towards US markets and away from some emerging markets.For Zambia, movements in the dollar are particularly important because much of the country's external debt and international trade is denominated in foreign currencies.A stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of servicing dollar-denominated obligations and make imports more expensive.The effect is not automatic. Exchange rates also depend on copper export receipts, domestic monetary policy, foreign-exchange supply and demand, inflation and investor confidence.<h3>Copper provides a counterweight</h3>Zambia has an important advantage that many emerging markets do not: copper.Strong copper prices can increase export earnings and foreign-exchange inflows, providing support for the kwacha and improving the country's external position.But copper cannot completely shield Zambia from global financial conditions.If international interest rates remain elevated, investors may still become more selective about emerging-market assets. The country can therefore benefit from stronger commodity revenues while simultaneously facing a more expensive global financing environment.<h3>The debt lesson</h3>The latest Treasury move also underlines why Zambia's debt restructuring is only one part of the country's long-term financing challenge.Even after restructuring, future borrowing will be priced against prevailing international interest rates and the risk investors attach to Zambia.This makes fiscal discipline, export earnings, foreign-exchange reserves and the credibility of economic policy important determinants of future borrowing costs.For policymakers, the implication is straightforward: Zambia cannot influence the Federal Reserve, but it can influence how exposed the country is to changes in global financial conditions.The rise in US Treasury yields is therefore a reminder that Zambia's economic fortunes are shaped not only by what happens in Lusaka or Copperbelt mining towns, but also by decisions made in Washington and movements in global capital markets.When the price of money rises in America, emerging markets eventually feel it — and Zambia is no exception.

US Bond Yields Rise, Putting Zambia on Notice

Crime fiction has long relied on familiar ingredients — money, power, betrayal, violence, loyalty and characters caught between competing worlds.For Zambian author Richard Sakala, those ingredients do not have to belong to distant cities or fictional foreign landscapes.His 2025 Ngoma Award-winning novel, Loyalty: To the Girl or to the Gang?, brings the crime thriller into a distinctly Zambian setting, following a young man whose life in Lusaka's criminal underworld is thrown into uncertainty when love offers him a possible way out.At the centre of the story is Hardric.Rescued from the slums of Lusaka and taken under the wing of a powerful gangster kingpin, Hardric grows into a ruthless and calculating figure. He has money, influence and the respect of the gang — as well as ambitions of eventually running the criminal empire himself.Then comes Maureen.A bold law student, Maureen wants to leave the criminal underworld behind and challenges Hardric to do the same.The resulting conflict is not simply about choosing between a woman and a gang. It is about whether someone can walk away from the world that shaped them.<h3>When loyalty becomes a trap</h3>For Sakala, loyalty is the central currency of the world he has created.In the streets, loyalty provides belonging and protection. But the same loyalty can eventually become a trap.That idea runs through the novel as Hardric finds himself caught between the criminal organisation that gave him his identity and the possibility of a different life with Maureen.The result is a story that combines crime, romance and suspense while examining the consequences of allegiance.In Sakala's fictional world, loyalty can keep you alive.It can also get you killed. <h2>THE INTERVIEW</h2><h3>Richard Sakala on crime fiction, Hardric and writing from Zambia</h3>KSJ: What is Loyalty: To the Girl or to the Gang? about?Richard Sakala: Loyalty: To the Girl or to the Gang? is a 2025 Ngoma Award-winning Zambian crime thriller about a high-stakes clash between criminal underworld allegiance and romantic love.At its centre is Hardric, a ruthless and brilliant gang leader in Lusaka who was rescued from the slums and shaped by a crime kingpin.He has everything he believes the streets promised him — respect, money and a path towards power.Then Maureen enters his life.She is a bold law student who wants out of the criminal underworld and wants Hardric to come with her.The story follows his struggle between the loyalty he owes to the gang and his love for Maureen and the possibility of a clean future.KSJ: What is the central conflict in the story?Richard Sakala: The central conflict is Hardric's dilemma.On one side is the gang and the streets that raised him. On the other is Maureen and the possibility of leaving that life behind.Hardric has built his identity around the criminal world, so walking away is not a simple decision.He has to decide what matters more — the streets that saved him or the woman who challenges him to leave everything behind.KSJ: What themes were you interested in exploring through the novel?Richard Sakala: The major theme is loyalty.In the streets, loyalty is everything. It is the defining currency.But absolute loyalty can also become the ultimate trap. Something that initially gives you protection and belonging can eventually lead to destruction.That is one of the contradictions I wanted to explore through the story.KSJ: You describe yourself as the “King of Zambia's Crime Fiction.” Why?Richard Sakala: I use the title because I see myself as a pioneer in a relatively new literary space in Zambia.Zambia has a rich literary tradition, but crime fiction has historically been underrepresented.I want to help establish Zambia's crime fiction as a genre in its own right.The idea is to create stories rooted in our own environment and experiences while using the conventions of crime fiction.For me, it is about pioneering a new literary genre in Zambia. <h2>Building a local crime-fiction identity</h2>Sakala's description of himself as the “King of Zambia's Crime Fiction” is deliberately ambitious.But underneath the branding is a more straightforward literary argument: there is room for more Zambian stories told through the crime-fiction lens.The genre provides plenty of possibilities in a city such as Lusaka, where questions of money, ambition, inequality, relationships, influence and survival can all become material for fiction.For local readers, there is also something different about seeing familiar places and social realities used as the backdrop for a thriller.Sakala's project is therefore not simply about writing crime stories.It is also about establishing a recognisable Zambian voice within a genre that has traditionally been dominated by international authors and settings.<h3>What comes next?</h3>Loyalty: To the Girl or to the Gang? is the first book in the Loyalty Series, leaving room for Hardric's story — and Sakala's wider crime-fiction project — to develop further.For a Zambian literary scene increasingly populated by authors experimenting with different genres, the emergence of locally rooted crime fiction is an interesting development.Sakala is betting that there is an audience for it.And with his first book already receiving recognition at the Ngoma Awards, the experiment has moved beyond the manuscript and onto the shelves.<h3>Where to find the book</h3>The paperback is available for K250, inclusive of delivery within Zambia, through Anna Zgambo.The e-book is available through:<ul><li>Amazon</li><li>Utushimi</li><li>AIMBUC Gallery</li><li>DL Bookstore</li></ul>Richard Sakala📞 +260 766 850 045📧 <a href="mailto:richardsakala310@gmail.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">richardsakala310@gmail.com</a>Facebook: Richard SakalaLinkedIn: Richard SakalaKatondo Street Journal's Author Spotlight features Zambian writers, their books and the ideas shaping the country's literary scene.

Richard Sakala Is Taking Zambia’s Crime Fiction to the Streets

No number in the Zambian economy is watched more closely, or understood less carefully, than the kwacha-dollar rate. It is quoted in kwacha per dollar, which means the line going up is the kwacha going down — a source of endless confusion in headlines that should know better. [[chart:kwacha-dollar]]The currency's path over the period above splits into three distinct regimes, each with its own driver: the commodity cycle, the debt restructuring timetable, and the seasonal pattern of import demand that tightens the market in the same months every year.<h3>Why it matters beyond the traders</h3>Roughly a third of the Zambian consumer basket is imported or priced off an imported input. Fuel is the obvious channel, but fertiliser, pharmaceuticals and most manufactured goods follow the same arithmetic. A weaker kwacha is an inflation forecast with a two-to-three month lag.Every chart in this piece is drawn from the KSJ economic database and refreshes as new monthly data is published.

The exchange rate is the single price that touches every other price in Zambia. Here is where it has been.

The Kwacha's Year: Five Charts on a Currency Under Pressure

&nbsp;Zambia is set to join a new J.P. Morgan benchmark for frontier-market government bonds, giving its kwacha-denominated debt greater visibility among international institutional investors.J.P. Morgan plans to launch the Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Edge (GBI-EM Edge) by the end of September, covering nearly US$330 billion in local-currency government debt across 26 frontier economies.African markets are expected to account for almost 45 percent of the index, according to an investor note reviewed by Reuters. Zambia, alongside markets including Angola, Egypt, Morocco and Nigeria, is among the African countries expected to qualify.For Zambia, the significance is less about an immediate injection of foreign capital and more about gaining a place on a benchmark watched by global fixed-income investors.J.P. Morgan's bond indices are used by asset managers to measure portfolio performance and, in some cases, construct investment portfolios. Inclusion can therefore place Zambian government securities in front of investors who may not otherwise actively consider the country's relatively small domestic bond market.But inclusion does not mean that J.P. Morgan is investing US$330 billion in Zambia or distributing that amount among the countries in the index. The figure represents the approximate value of eligible debt tracked by the benchmark. Actual capital flows will depend on how many investment managers follow the index and the size of the funds they manage.<h3>Zambia had to make its bonds large enough</h3>The development also highlights changes underway in Zambia's domestic government securities market.J.P. Morgan's rules require eligible bonds to have at least US$250 million equivalent in outstanding value and at least 2.5 years remaining to maturity, while no country can account for more than 8 percent of the index.The minimum bond-size requirement had raised questions about whether Zambia would qualify. Reuters reported that Zambia's efforts to increase the size of its benchmark securities enabled it to meet the threshold.The Bank of Zambia has been deliberately working to create larger and more liquid benchmark securities. Under changes introduced in 2026, benchmark bonds have a minimum target outstanding size of K10 billion, with the central bank reopening existing benchmark bonds to build them towards that level.Government bond auctions were also increased to K6.3 billion per auction in the second quarter of 2026, with auctions scheduled twice during the quarter.The reforms are important because size and liquidity matter to institutional investors. A large bond that trades regularly is easier for a fund manager to enter and exit than a small, thinly traded security.<h3>Foreign participation is already increasing</h3>Zambia's inclusion comes as foreign participation in the domestic government bond market has been expanding.The Bank of Zambia raised the ceiling for non-resident participation in primary government bond auctions from 5 percent to 23 percent of planned annual issuance in January 2026.During the first quarter, demand for government bonds exceeded the amounts offered by an average 175.3 percent, with the Bank of Zambia attributing the strong demand partly to substantial participation by non-resident investors.That provides an important backdrop to the J.P. Morgan development: international investors were already showing greater interest in Zambia's domestic debt before the new index is launched.<h3>A changing macroeconomic backdrop</h3>The index inclusion also comes against an improvement in some of Zambia's macroeconomic indicators.Annual inflation fell to 6.2 percent in August 2026, from 6.5 percent in July, according to the Zambia Statistics Agency.The IMF said in May that Zambia had made substantial progress in consolidating macroeconomic stabilisation, while gross international reserves had risen to US$6.4 billion, equivalent to 4.4 months of prospective imports. The Fund also noted continuing fiscal pressures and the need for further reforms to reduce the domestic interest burden and strengthen fiscal resilience.These factors matter to investors because the attractiveness of a kwacha-denominated bond is determined not only by its coupon or yield, but also by expectations about inflation, fiscal policy, exchange-rate movements and the government's ability to manage its debt.<h3>What it could mean for borrowing costs</h3>If index inclusion leads to sustained foreign demand, Zambia could benefit from a deeper and more liquid government bond market.A broader investor base could increase demand for kwacha-denominated securities and potentially reduce the yield investors require to hold them. Government bond yields also serve as reference rates for other borrowing in the economy, meaning lower sovereign funding costs could eventually influence financing conditions for banks and companies.There is, however, no guarantee that this will happen.Frontier-market bonds offer higher yields partly because investors take on greater currency, liquidity and sovereign risks. J.P. Morgan expects the new index to have an estimated average yield of about 10.4 percent, roughly 4.4 percentage points above its mainstream emerging-market local-currency bond index.For an international investor, a high kwacha bond yield can be offset by a depreciation of the currency against the dollar. Investors can also withdraw quickly from smaller markets when global interest rates rise or risk appetite deteriorates.That makes index inclusion a gateway to capital, rather than a guarantee of cheaper borrowing.For Zambia, the more immediate significance is that its domestic bond market is increasingly being structured around the requirements of international institutional investors: larger benchmark securities, greater liquidity and wider access for non-residents.After years in which Zambia's international financial-market profile was dominated by debt distress and restructuring, the inclusion in J.P. Morgan's frontier-market benchmark provides another indication that the country's domestic capital market is being reconnected to global investors.The next test will be whether that visibility translates into sustained investment, deeper market liquidity and, ultimately, a lower cost of financing for the Zambian government and the wider economy.

Zambia Enters New J.P. Morgan Frontier Bond Index

Bond yields are among the most closely watched indicators in financial markets, but they are often discussed as though investors are expected to understand what they mean.At their simplest, bond yields tell investors what return the market is demanding for lending money for a particular period. But changes in yields can also provide clues about expectations for inflation, interest rates, government borrowing and economic growth.For investors, understanding the movement can sometimes be as important as understanding the level. <h2>What Is a Bond Yield?</h2>A bond is essentially a loan.When an investor buys a government bond, for example, the government receives money today and promises to make specified payments before returning the principal at maturity.The yield is the return an investor expects to receive from holding the bond, based on its price and payments.The important point is that bond prices and yields generally move in opposite directions.If demand for an existing bond increases, its price rises. Because the bond's payments have not changed, the effective return to a new buyer falls.If investors sell the bond and its price falls, its yield rises.This relationship is fundamental to understanding bond markets. <h2>Why Do Yields Move?</h2>Several factors can push yields higher or lower.<h3>Interest-rate expectations</h3>Central banks influence short-term interest rates, and markets constantly assess where those rates could be heading.If investors expect interest rates to remain high, yields on many bonds can rise as investors demand greater returns.Conversely, expectations of lower future rates can contribute to falling yields, particularly at shorter maturities.<h3>Inflation</h3>Inflation matters because investors care about their real return—the return after accounting for changes in purchasing power.If a bond offers a 10% nominal yield while inflation is 8%, the approximate real return before taxes and other considerations is only 2%.When investors expect higher inflation, they may demand higher nominal yields to compensate.<h3>Government borrowing</h3>Governments frequently issue bonds to finance deficits and refinance existing debt.If the supply of government debt increases substantially, investors may demand higher yields, particularly if there are concerns about the government's ability or willingness to manage its debt burden.But supply is only one part of the equation. Strong demand for government securities can absorb additional issuance without producing a corresponding increase in yields.<h3>Economic growth</h3>Bond yields can also reflect expectations about economic activity.Stronger expected growth may increase expectations for inflation and higher interest rates, putting upward pressure on yields.Weak economic expectations can have the opposite effect as investors seek relatively predictable income and anticipate easier monetary policy. <h2>What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us?</h2>One of the most useful ways to read the bond market is through the yield curve.The yield curve compares yields across different maturities, such as two-year, five-year and ten-year government bonds.Normally, longer-term bonds offer higher yields because investors are committing their money for longer and face greater uncertainty.But the curve can take different shapes.A steepening curve may indicate that long-term yields are rising relative to short-term yields. This can reflect changing expectations around inflation, economic growth or government borrowing.A flattening curve means the difference between short- and long-term yields is narrowing.An inverted curve, where shorter-term yields exceed longer-term yields, has historically attracted attention because it can occur when markets expect future interest rates and economic activity to weaken.None of these signals should be interpreted in isolation. <h2>What Does This Mean for a Zambian Investor?</h2>For a Zambian investor, the headline government bond yield should be only the starting point.The first question is: what is the yield after inflation?A bond yielding 15% may appear attractive, but if inflation is running at 12%, the difference between the nominal yield and inflation is much smaller than the headline number suggests. Investors therefore need to distinguish between the return stated on the bond and the return in terms of purchasing power.The second question is: what is happening to the exchange rate?A Zambian investor who measures wealth partly in US dollars may experience a very different outcome from one measuring returns entirely in kwacha. A high kwacha bond yield does not automatically translate into a high foreign-currency return if the kwacha depreciates significantly during the investment period.The third question is: what is driving the yield?A high yield can reflect attractive income, but it can also reflect higher perceived risk, inflation expectations, fiscal pressures or uncertainty about future monetary conditions. The number needs to be interpreted alongside the conditions producing it.The fourth question is: how long is the money being locked up?A longer-dated government bond may offer a higher yield, but it also exposes an investor to greater interest-rate and price risk if the investor needs to sell before maturity.This creates an important distinction between an investor who intends to hold a bond to maturity and one who may need to trade it before maturity. <h2>A Simple Zambia Investor Dashboard</h2>For someone following Zambia's fixed-income market, five indicators provide a useful starting point:1. Government bond yieldsTrack yields across different maturities rather than focusing on one bond.2. InflationCompare nominal yields with the inflation environment to assess the potential real return.3. Monetary policyWatch the direction of interest rates and the signals coming from the Bank of Zambia.4. Exchange rateConsider how movements in the kwacha could affect returns, particularly for investors who think in foreign-currency terms.5. Fiscal and debt developmentsGovernment borrowing requirements, debt restructuring developments and the overall fiscal position can influence how investors price government securities.Together, these indicators provide more information than the bond yield alone. <h2>The Key Takeaway for Zambia</h2>For Zambian investors, a high bond yield should not automatically be interpreted as a high return.The more useful question is: <blockquote>What does the yield compensate me for?</blockquote>It may compensate for inflation. It may reflect interest-rate expectations. It may reflect the time commitment involved in holding the bond. It may reflect fiscal or credit concerns. Or it may simply reflect prevailing market conditions.The answer matters because two bonds with apparently attractive yields can carry very different economic implications.An investor considering Zambian government securities should therefore look at the yield, inflation, maturity, interest-rate environment, exchange rate and fiscal conditions together.That is the central lesson of reading bond markets: the yield is the price of the opportunity—and the risks embedded in that opportunity.For Zambia, understanding those risks is particularly important because nominal returns can look very different from real and foreign-currency-adjusted returns.

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Bond Yields and What They Signal for Investors

Investing in shares can sound like something reserved for wealthy investors, financial professionals or people who spend their mornings watching stock prices.It doesn't have to be.For a Zambian with a regular income and a long-term financial goal, investing in local equities can provide a way to become a part-owner of businesses operating in the economy.But buying a share is not the same as putting money in a savings account.The value can fall. Dividends are not guaranteed. And the fact that a company is familiar does not automatically make it a good investment.For beginners, the first step is understanding what they are actually buying. <h2>What is a share?</h2>A share represents ownership in a company.When an investor buys ordinary shares in a listed company, they become a shareholder and may benefit from two main sources of return: dividends paid by the company and an increase in the market value of the shares.If a company performs well and investors become willing to pay more for its shares, the investor may eventually sell at a higher price.But the reverse is also true.A share bought at K5 can fall to K4 or K3.That is the first principle a new investor needs to understand:Equities offer the possibility of growth, not a guarantee of profit. <h2>Start with the Lusaka Securities Exchange</h2>For someone looking to invest in listed Zambian companies, the natural starting point is the Lusaka Securities Exchange (LuSE).The exchange provides a regulated marketplace where securities are bought and sold. Investors generally access the market through licensed stockbrokers, who execute orders on their behalf.A beginner therefore does not simply walk into a company and buy 100 shares.The usual process is to open an investment account with a broker, provide the required identification and address documentation, fund the account and instruct the broker to purchase shares.LuSE also provides a mobile trading option, giving investors another route into the market. <h2>What should you look at before buying?</h2>The biggest beginner mistake is choosing a company because its name is familiar.Instead, look at the business behind the share.Ask:How does the company make money?Then look at its revenue, profits, debt, cash flow and dividend history.Consider whether the company's business model is likely to remain viable over the period you intend to hold the shares.For example, a company exposed heavily to foreign exchange movements, commodity prices, interest rates or imported inputs may respond differently to economic conditions than a company whose revenues are primarily domestic.This is where reading annual reports becomes useful.You don't need to become an accountant.Start with the income statement, balance sheet and cash-flow statement. Then look at management's explanation of the company's performance and its risks. <h2>Dividends are not free money</h2>Dividends are one of the reasons investors buy shares.A company can distribute part of its profits to shareholders, subject to its dividend policy and the decisions of its board.But a company does not have to distribute all of its profits.It may retain earnings to expand, reduce debt, purchase equipment or pursue another investment.That means a high dividend today does not automatically mean a better investment.The more useful question is:Why is the company paying that dividend, and can it continue to do so? <h2>Price matters</h2>A good company can still be an expensive investment.Suppose two companies are both profitable. One share costs K2 and another costs K20.That tells you almost nothing by itself.The number of shares, profits, assets and future expectations all matter.Investors therefore use measures such as the price-to-earnings ratio, dividend yield, earnings growth and return on equity to assess valuation and business performance.A beginner does not need to master every financial ratio immediately.But learning a few basic measures is far better than buying because a share price "looks cheap." <h2>Remember the Zambian economy</h2>Local equities cannot be separated completely from the wider economy.Inflation affects purchasing power and business costs.Interest rates affect borrowing.The exchange rate matters for companies with foreign currency exposure.Commodity prices matter significantly for an economy connected to mining.Government policy, electricity supply, consumer demand and regional economic conditions can also influence company performance.This is where investing becomes more interesting than simply watching a share-price chart.You are effectively asking how a particular business fits into the economy around it. <h2>Liquidity matters</h2>One issue new investors should understand is liquidity.A share can have a quoted price without there necessarily being a large number of buyers and sellers at every moment.That can affect how quickly an investor can buy or sell and the price at which a transaction takes place.This is particularly important for someone who may need the money soon.Equities are generally better suited to money that can remain invested for a reasonable period rather than funds needed for next month's rent, school fees or an emergency.LuSE's own investor education material emphasises that share prices fluctuate and that investors should approach equities prudently. <h2>Fees count</h2>A beginner may look at a share price and forget about transaction costs.Buying and selling shares involves brokerage and other charges. LuSE publishes its trading-fee information, while brokers provide details of the costs applicable to transactions.For someone investing a small amount, fees can represent a significant proportion of the investment.That makes it important to understand the total cost before placing an order. <h2>Don't put everything into one company</h2>Diversification is one of the basic principles of investing.If your entire equity portfolio consists of one company, a problem affecting that company can have an outsized effect on your wealth.Holding investments across different companies and sectors can reduce the impact of a single company performing badly.That does not eliminate risk.It simply avoids making one company responsible for the entire portfolio.Investors who do not want to select individual companies can also explore collective investment schemes, where funds are pooled and invested across different assets. <h2>Think like an owner, not a gambler</h2>The biggest psychological shift for a new investor is to stop thinking only about whether the share price will rise next week.Instead, think about the company.Would you want to own a small part of this business for several years?Does it generate cash?Does it have a credible strategy?Does management allocate capital responsibly?Does the company have a competitive position?And are you paying a reasonable price for the future earnings you are buying?These questions take more effort than following market rumours.They are also more useful. <h2>Start small and learn</h2>A beginner does not need to start with a large portfolio.The more important investment may initially be the time spent learning how the market works.Understand the LuSE.Understand your broker's fees.Read company announcements and annual reports.Learn basic financial statements.Follow economic indicators.Then invest an amount that fits your financial circumstances and risk tolerance.The Securities and Exchange Commission has also advised investors to verify that intermediaries are properly licensed and to research an investment before committing money. <h2>The bigger opportunity</h2>There is a broader reason for more Zambians to understand local equities.When citizens invest in listed companies, they are not simply trying to grow personal wealth.They are participating in the country's capital markets.The stock exchange provides companies with a mechanism to raise capital from investors, while investors gain an opportunity to participate in corporate ownership.For a country seeking greater domestic savings and deeper capital markets, that participation matters.But financial inclusion in investing should not mean encouraging people to buy shares without understanding them.The goal should be the opposite.More investors who understand what they own, why they own it and what could go wrong.For the beginner, that is where investing in local equities should start.Not with the question, “Which share will make me rich?”But with a much more useful one:“What business am I buying, and what am I paying for it?”

A Beginner's Guide to Investing in Local Equities. Placeholder summary for the Markets section. Replace this text with a real story or delete the article from the admin dashboard.

A Beginner's Guide to Investing in Local Equities

A decision made by a central bank thousands of kilometres away can eventually show up in the price of imports, the value of a currency and the cost of borrowing in Zambia.Interest rates are usually presented as domestic policy decisions.The US Federal Reserve changes its policy rate to influence the American economy. The European Central Bank does the same for the euro area. But in an increasingly interconnected financial system, these decisions rarely remain within their own borders.For emerging markets, changes in global interest rates can have very real consequences.<h3>It starts with investors</h3>International investors are constantly comparing returns.When interest rates in advanced economies rise, government bonds and other assets in those markets can become more attractive relative to riskier emerging-market investments.Some investors may therefore reduce their exposure to emerging markets and move funds into assets perceived as safer or offering better risk-adjusted returns.The reverse can happen when global rates decline.Lower returns in advanced economies can push investors to search for yield in emerging and frontier markets.These movements can influence the availability and cost of foreign capital.<h3>The currency channel</h3>One of the most visible effects can appear in foreign-exchange markets.If international investors reduce their holdings of local assets, demand for the local currency can weaken. Depreciation can follow.For an economy that imports fuel, machinery, medicines, food or industrial inputs, this matters.A weaker currency means that the same dollar-priced import costs more in local currency.That can feed into domestic inflation.Central banks may then face a difficult balancing act. Cutting interest rates could support economic activity, but doing so while the currency and inflation are under pressure may create additional risks.<h3>Governments feel it too</h3>The impact does not stop with private investors.Emerging-market governments often rely on domestic and international borrowing to finance public expenditure and investment.When global interest rates rise, international borrowing can become more expensive. Investors may also demand higher yields to compensate for the increased opportunity cost and perceived risk of holding emerging-market debt.Foreign-currency debt creates another vulnerability.If the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the domestic-currency cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt increases even if the amount owed in dollars has not changed.This can place additional pressure on government budgets.<h3>Why Zambia is exposed</h3>Zambia provides a useful illustration of these transmission channels.The country is integrated into global markets through trade, investment and external financing. Copper exports generate foreign exchange, while the economy also depends on imported fuel, machinery and other goods.Global financial conditions therefore matter.A change in the attractiveness of US or European assets can influence international investor appetite for emerging and frontier markets. Changes in commodity prices can simultaneously affect Zambia's export earnings and foreign-exchange position.The result is that the impact of a global interest-rate shift is not necessarily straightforward.A period of higher global rates may create pressure through financing costs and capital flows, while strong copper prices could provide an offset through higher export receipts.Domestic policy and economic fundamentals matter as well.<h3>Not every emerging market experiences the same shock</h3>The phrase "emerging markets" can sometimes make very different economies sound identical.They are not.A country with substantial foreign-exchange reserves, strong export earnings and relatively manageable external debt may respond differently to a global rate increase than a country with large external financing needs and weak reserves.The structure of the economy matters too.Commodity exporters, for example, may benefit from rising prices for their major exports even as tighter global financial conditions create pressure elsewhere.This is why global interest rates should be understood as one part of a larger transmission mechanism rather than a single cause of economic outcomes.<h3>From Washington to Lusaka</h3>The important point is that monetary policy has become increasingly global in its consequences.A rate decision in Washington can influence international capital flows.Capital flows can affect exchange rates.Exchange-rate movements can influence import prices and inflation.Global borrowing costs can affect government financing.And these pressures can eventually feed into decisions made by businesses, households and policymakers in countries far from the original decision.The chain is not always immediate, and it does not operate in exactly the same way everywhere.But it helps explain why emerging-market economies pay close attention to decisions made by the world's major central banks.For countries such as Zambia, understanding this connection is increasingly important.The price of money is globalising, even when economic policy remains largely national.

How Shifts in Global Interest Rates Reach Emerging Markets. Placeholder summary for the World section. Replace this text with a real story or delete the article from the admin dashboard.

How Shifts in Global Interest Rates Reach Emerging Markets

A strange August shower in Lusaka may have been easy to dismiss. But behind the unusual weather is a much bigger story about a changing climate, an approaching El Niño and the economic risks Zambia should already be preparing for.On 13 August, Zambia had other things on its mind.The country was consumed by elections. Conversations revolved around polling stations, voters, political parties, turnout, results and what the next five years might look like. For a few days, almost everything else seemed secondary.And then, in parts of Lusaka, it rained. Not November rain. Not December rain. Not the familiar afternoon downpour that arrives after the clouds have gathered over the capital during the wet season. August rain.For most people, it was probably little more than an oddity. Some may have welcomed it. Others may simply have carried on with their day. In a country where rain is such a familiar part of life, it is easy to forget just how unusual rainfall can be during the heart of the dry season.Zambia's rainfall follows a remarkably distinct seasonal pattern. The wet season generally runs from around September or October through April, driven largely by the movement of the tropical rain belt. August, by contrast, sits firmly within the country's dry and cool season. The IMF describes the period from May to August as particularly dry, while climate assessments of Zambia note that rainfall is generally concentrated in the wet season.So an August shower in Lusaka is not, by itself, evidence of climate change. Nor can we say that El Niño caused the rain. Weather is too complicated for that kind of conclusion.But perhaps that is precisely why we should pay attention.The important climate story is not necessarily that it rained on one unusual August afternoon. It is that the weather patterns on which Zambia's economy has depended for generations are becoming increasingly difficult to take for granted.Climate change does not always announce itself with a dramatic flood or a catastrophic drought. Sometimes it appears in smaller ways: an unusually warm winter morning, a strange dry spell, a storm arriving at the wrong time, rainfall becoming more erratic, or a season beginning differently from what farmers have come to expect.These events can seem insignificant when viewed individually. Their significance becomes clearer when they form part of a longer pattern.And now, as Zambia looks towards the 2026–27 rainy season, another warning is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.El Niño is coming.In fact, it is already developing. The World Meteorological Organization warned earlier this year that El Niño was expected to develop from mid-2026, with the phenomenon likely to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns. By June, the WMO was putting the probability of El Niño continuing into November at around 90 percent or higher. The latest forecasts are even more striking.On 13 August — the same day Zambians were going to the polls — the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory. Its latest assessment puts the probability of a very strong El Niño at more than 90 percent during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–27. There is also a 69 percent probability that the October–December period could reach historically extreme levels.That does not mean Zambia will automatically experience a drought. El Niño is a global climate phenomenon and its local effects are complicated. But Southern Africa is one of the regions where the relationship between El Niño and rainfall has historically mattered greatly.For Zambia, that should immediately get the attention of anyone thinking seriously about the economy.We have been here before. The 2023–24 El Niño season produced one of the worst droughts Zambia had experienced in decades. Agriculture was badly affected, food insecurity increased and the country's dependence on hydropower became a major economic vulnerability. The drought demonstrated something that economists sometimes forget when constructing models: rainfall is an economic variable.When the rains fail, maize production suffers. When maize production falls, food prices come under pressure. When water levels decline, hydropower generation suffers. When electricity becomes unreliable, businesses reduce production or increase their operating costs. When farmers lose income, rural demand weakens. When food and electricity have to be imported, foreign-exchange pressures can increase.A climatic shock can therefore move through an economy in much the same way as a financial shock.It starts in the atmosphere and eventually arrives in household budgets, business balance sheets and government accounts.That is why the coming El Niño should not be treated as a story exclusively for farmers.It is a story for the Bank of Zambia. It is a story for the Ministry of Finance. It is a story for ZESCO, farmers, manufacturers, banks, retailers and investors. It is a story for anyone trying to understand Zambia's inflation, food security, electricity supply and economic growth over the next twelve months.The African Union has already been urging countries to move away from simply responding to climate disasters after they occur and towards anticipatory action. Its 2026 continental discussions on El Niño have specifically highlighted agriculture, energy, water, infrastructure, health and other climate-sensitive sectors.That is the right approach.Because the biggest mistake Zambia could make is to wait for the drought to become obvious before treating it as a serious economic risk.By then, the farmer may already have planted. The reservoir may already be falling. The electricity deficit may already be appearing. The price of maize may already be rising.Preparation works precisely because it happens before the crisis becomes visible.And there is a particularly uncomfortable irony about the timing of all this.Zambia has spent much of 2026 looking at politics. The election has understandably consumed public attention. The country has been debating who should lead, what policies should change and what the next political chapter will look like.But while we have been watching the ballot, another process has been unfolding thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean.El Niño does not care about election calendars.It will not wait for the new government to settle in. It will not wait for the Cabinet to be appointed. It will not wait for Parliament to debate the budget. And it certainly will not wait for Zambia to finish arguing about politics.The irony is that by the time the political dust settles, the next rainy season will already be approaching.And this is where that strange August shower becomes an interesting metaphor.We should not look at the rain that fell in Lusaka on 13 August and conclude that El Niño has arrived. That would be bad science.But neither should we look at it and shrug off the broader message: the climate system on which we have built our agriculture, energy system and economic expectations is becoming less predictable.The coming months deserve attention.If El Niño strengthens as forecast, Zambia could face a difficult 2026–27 agricultural season. The critical questions will not simply be whether it rains, but when it rains, how much it rains, how evenly that rainfall is distributed and whether there are long dry spells between rainfall events. Even a season that eventually receives reasonable total rainfall can be economically damaging if that rainfall arrives at the wrong time for crops.And that is why the country should be preparing now.Farmers need timely climate information. Energy planners need to stress-test hydropower assumptions. Government needs contingency plans for food and electricity. Businesses should consider their exposure to water, power and agricultural supply chains. Financial institutions should think about agricultural credit risk. Policymakers should incorporate climate scenarios into economic forecasts rather than treating weather as an external surprise.The lesson from the August rain is therefore not that Zambia is suddenly experiencing an El Niño.The lesson is that we should become much better at noticing the signals before they become shocks.On 13 August, Zambia was busy counting votes.Perhaps, in the months ahead, we should also start counting something else: rainfall, reservoir levels, crop conditions, temperatures and the probability of another difficult agricultural season.Because the next major economic shock may not arrive with a political speech, a currency announcement or a budget statement.It may arrive quietly in the clouds.We spent August watching the ballot. By November, we may be watching the sky.And by then, the question will no longer be whether Zambia saw the warning coming.It will be whether we prepared for it.

While Zambia Was Watching the Ballot, the Weather Was Sending a Warning

Book Review | Katondo Street JournalThere are novels that use mythology as decoration, and then there are novels that use mythology as a language through which to interrogate society. Copper Coins and Curses belongs to the latter category.Written by Zambian economist and author Kampamba Shula, the novel is an ambitious fusion of African mythology, fantasy, adventure and economic allegory. At its centre are two young boys, Mosi Nuka and Mwansa Kabinga, whose encounter with the legendary Nyami Nyami and the mysterious Copper Bloodstone opens a much larger story about power, extraction, history and destiny. Their journey extends from the Zambezi to pirate kingdoms, ghost markets, storm-battered islands and haunted Caribbean waters, while ancient relics begin to disturb the boundaries between past, present and future.But beneath the adventure lies a more serious question: what happens to a society when the thing that gives it wealth also becomes the source of its curse?That is where Copper Coins and Curses becomes particularly interesting. <h2>The resource curse in mythological form</h2>The concept of the resource curse is usually discussed in the language of economics. Countries endowed with valuable natural resources can paradoxically experience weak institutions, inequality, political instability, corruption, economic volatility and underdevelopment.Shula takes this familiar economic problem and transforms it into mythology.Instead of presenting the resource curse through graphs, commodity prices and fiscal statistics, the novel gives it supernatural form. Copper becomes more than a mineral. It becomes an object around which power, greed, history and destiny converge.The title itself is revealing. Copper represents wealth; curses represent the consequences of how that wealth is acquired, controlled and distributed.This creates an allegory that is particularly resonant in Zambia, a country whose modern economic history has been deeply intertwined with copper. The author has explicitly described the novel as an exploration of what happens when an economy is built around something it cannot control, arguing that commodity movements ultimately affect ordinary people's jobs, school fees, rent and food prices.The novel therefore asks an uncomfortable question: Is the resource itself the problem, or is the problem what humans do with it?Its answer appears to be the latter. <h2>Nyami Nyami as more than a mythical creature</h2>One of the novel's most compelling choices is its use of Nyami Nyami, the legendary Zambezi river spirit, as a force within the story.In conventional fantasy, a mythical creature can simply function as a source of wonder or danger. Here, mythology performs a deeper function.Nyami Nyami becomes a bridge between nature, memory and human ambition.The river is not merely scenery. It represents a world that existed before modern economic systems and will, potentially, survive them. The demand for the return of the Copper Bloodstone therefore carries an almost ecological and moral dimension: something has been taken, and something must be returned.That makes the mythology feel less like an escape from reality and more like an alternative way of understanding reality.The supernatural becomes a language for asking questions that economics sometimes struggles to express emotionally.What does extraction mean to the people who live beside the resource?What happens when wealth is removed from a place but the costs remain?Who owns the past?And can a society extract from nature indefinitely without eventually confronting the consequences? <h2>Copper as metaphor</h2>The copper in the novel operates simultaneously on several levels.It is a physical resource, a source of wealth, a historical commodity and a symbol of desire.But perhaps most importantly, it becomes a metaphor for value itself.Human beings assign value to copper because economies require it. Yet the novel reverses the relationship: copper begins to exert power over human beings.This is one of the book's richest allegories.The question is no longer simply, What can copper do for us?It becomes:What are we willing to do for copper?That distinction is fundamental to understanding the resource curse.Natural resources can finance schools, infrastructure, industry and prosperity. But they can also create incentives for rent-seeking, political competition and short-term extraction. The same resource can become either a foundation for development or a source of distortion.Copper Coins and Curses dramatises that contradiction through fantasy. <h2>The curse is institutional, not supernatural</h2>Perhaps the most interesting reading of the novel is that its "curse" need not be understood literally.The curse can be read as an allegory for institutions.A society does not necessarily become cursed because it possesses a valuable resource. It becomes vulnerable when the institutions surrounding that resource are unable to manage its power.This is where Shula's background as an economist gives the novel an unusual dimension. The story appears to understand that economic systems are ultimately human systems. Commodity prices may move globally, but the consequences are experienced locally.A fall in copper prices can become unemployment.A boom can become currency appreciation and inequality.A mineral discovery can generate political competition.A valuable deposit can attract foreign capital while leaving communities questioning what they actually received in return.The supernatural curse therefore mirrors a very real economic phenomenon: wealth can produce vulnerability when the systems governing it are weaker than the forces exploiting it. <h2>The danger of controlling destiny</h2>The novel's antagonist, Nsembe, adds another important dimension to this argument.Nsembe is described as a fallen guardian seeking to restore a single "perfect" timeline, even if doing so requires erasing civilizations, futures and lives.This introduces a second allegory: the danger of believing that complex societies can be engineered towards a perfect outcome by concentrating extraordinary power in the hands of one actor.There is a striking parallel here with resource economies.Resource wealth often creates enormous concentrations of economic and political power. Whoever controls the resource can gain disproportionate influence over the country's future.The novel therefore moves from the question of resource extraction to the broader question of control.Who gets to decide the future?Who gets to determine what is sacrificed for progress?And can the pursuit of a supposedly perfect future justify destroying alternative futures?These are questions that extend well beyond mythology. <h2>Two boys confronting the machinery of history</h2>Mosi Nuka and Mwansa Kabinga provide an important counterweight to the larger forces surrounding them.They are young, and their journey places them inside conflicts that existed long before they understood them.That makes their story symbolic.They represent a generation inheriting systems, histories and consequences that they did not create.This is arguably one of the strongest ways to read the novel in a contemporary African context.Young Africans inherit economies shaped by colonial extraction, commodity dependence, global markets, debt, infrastructure deficits and institutional choices made before their birth. Yet they are also expected to create a different future.Mosi and Mwansa's journey therefore becomes a journey through inherited history.The question confronting them is not simply how to defeat the forces pursuing them. It is whether they can break the pattern. <h2>A distinctly African mythology of modernity</h2>There is also something significant about the geographical imagination of the novel.The story refuses to keep African mythology confined to a narrowly defined African setting. Its journey moves through the Zambezi, the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean, connecting different histories and mythological worlds.That approach challenges the idea that African mythology belongs only to the past.Instead, the novel treats mythology as living intellectual material capable of engaging with modern questions about capitalism, extraction, technology, political power and globalisation.That is an important contribution.African mythology does not have to be presented solely as folklore. It can also become a framework for speculative thought. <h2>The curse of extraction</h2>Ultimately, Copper Coins and Curses can be read as a story about extraction in its broadest sense.Humans extract minerals from the earth.Empires extract wealth from territories.Markets extract value from commodities.Power extracts obedience from people.And sometimes societies extract from the future in order to satisfy the present.The mythology makes these abstractions visible.The Copper Bloodstone, the Cursed Copper Coin and the other ancient relics become symbols of concentrated power capable of reshaping destiny. Their danger lies not necessarily in their existence, but in the desire of humans to possess and control them.This is precisely what makes the novel's resource-curse allegory effective.The curse is not simply that there is treasure.The curse is the belief that possessing treasure gives one the right to control everything around it. <h2>A novel worth reading beyond the adventure</h2>As a work of fantasy, Copper Coins and Curses offers mythology, mystery, time travel, supernatural forces and adventure. But reading it purely as an adventure story would miss much of what makes it distinctive.Its deeper ambition is to ask economic and political questions through myth.For readers interested in Zambia's copper economy, African development, political economy or the relationship between natural resources and institutions, the novel offers an unusual proposition: perhaps some economic problems are easier to understand when they are turned into stories.And perhaps mythology has not disappeared from modern African life.Perhaps it has simply changed form.The gods have become institutions.The sacred relics have become commodities.The curses have become economic structures.And the ancient struggle over resources continues under the language of markets, contracts and development.That is the real strength of Copper Coins and Curses. It does not merely place African mythology inside a fantasy adventure. It uses mythology to interrogate one of Africa's most enduring economic questions: why does extraordinary natural wealth so often fail to produce extraordinary human prosperity?For a Zambian novel, that is an ambitious question.For an African novel, it is an important one.And for readers of Katondo Street Journal, it makes Copper Coins and Curses more than a fantasy novel.It is a story about copper.But ultimately, it is a story about power, memory, extraction and the price of wealth.

Copper Coins and Curses: When Myth Becomes an Economic Allegory

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