In Kemet, the river kept the accounts.Every year, when the star Sopdet rose before dawn, the Iteru began to swell. At Abu, on the island below the cataracts, priests descended a stone stairway into the water to read the marks cut into its walls.The instrument was called the Nilometer.It did not measure the river's beauty. It measured its promise.A high flood meant black silt on the fields, full granaries and a prosperous harvest. A low flood meant cracked earth, thin cattle and less grain to collect. The fortunes of the kingdom, and the revenues of its treasury, depended on the water.That was the oldest rule in Kemet:You assess the harvest by the river, not by the hopes of the treasury. <h2>The Dream</h2>That year, Pharaoh dreamed.He stood on the riverbank and watched seven fat cows emerge from the water to graze among the reeds. Behind them came seven lean cows, their ribs showing like the ridges of a dry field.He awoke troubled and summoned the Priests of the Sky.They no longer needed a prisoner to interpret dreams. They had instruments, rainfall records and generations of observations."The fat cows have already come, Great House," they said. "The granaries are fuller than in living memory. The Overseer of the Granaries planned to purchase one million measures of grain this year. He bought 2,743,393.""And the lean cows?""They are the Child of the Warm Sea. When the distant waters grow warm, the rains of Kemet fail. The Child comes next season."At the beginning of the year, the court had promised a six-cubit flood. The previous year's mark had been 5.3. But the priests had returned from Abu with a different reading.NILOMETER: 4.9 CUBITS.Lower than last year. Lower than promised.Not a famine. But no longer a feast. <h2>The Scroll of the Two Treasuries</h2>Pharaoh summoned his court to hear the scroll for the coming year.It was read by Nebamun, Overseer of the Two Treasuries, a careful man who had spent years untangling the debts of an earlier reign.The scroll bore the title:Grow Kemet: From Stabilisation to Unlocking Opportunities, Creating Work and Improving Livelihoods for All.It was the largest scroll ever read in the hall: 284.8 billion deben, an eighth more than the year before.And much of it was good news.When the previous reign defaulted, merchants from across the Great Green had come to collect. At the worst point, 45 of every 100 deben the court spent went towards servicing its debts.Now the figure stood at 23.7 of every 100.Not long ago, Kemet could finance barely three-fifths of its own expenditure. Now 82 of every 100 deben would come from its own fields, mines and markets.The tax-gatherers had collected 98, then 104, then 101 parts of every hundred they were asked to deliver. The deficit, which had swollen to 5.9 parts in the year now ending, was to fall to three.The courtiers applauded. They were right to.Then Nebamun read the tax assessment.The applause stopped.Company tax: from 30.1 billion to 42.7 billion deben. An increase of almost two-fifths.The tax on wages: up by a tenth.The tax on every sale in the market: from 16 parts in every hundred to 16 and a half.An old scribe at the back leaned towards his neighbour."The Nilometer says the river is lower," he whispered. "Yet the scroll expects a larger harvest of taxes. One of them is wrong.""Or perhaps both can be true," replied his neighbour. "The mines are deep, and copper does not care about rain."The old scribe was not convinced. He remembered another scroll. <h2>The Seer from Beyond the River</h2>Word of the new scroll crossed the Great Green and reached the counting houses of the bondholders.They had been burned once. They had no intention of being burned again.So they summoned Bilamun, a seer from beyond the river who read treasuries as priests read entrails. They paid him handsomely and gave him a simple instruction."Go to Kemet. Curse the scroll. Tell the world its numbers are sand."Bilamun mounted his she-donkey and travelled to a high place overlooking Pharaoh's treasury. He opened his mouth to curse.He blessed instead."How shall I curse what the gods have not cursed?" he said. "The old debts have been restructured. The tax-gatherers deliver what they promise. The granaries are full."He tried again from a second high place."The dole for the poorest households rises by more than a third, to 10.36 billion deben, reaching more than 1.6 million households. And Kemet now finances almost all of it from its own treasury. The foreign donors once gave 910 million; now they give 129 million. Pharaoh's contribution rises from 6.7 billion to 10.2 billion."From a third high place, he continued:"A new house of skills has been built, and the trades receive 852.7 million deben, three-fifths more than last year. The constituency councils receive 9.05 billion, nearly half as much again. Pharaoh has even insured the land against drought."The bondholders' messengers tore their robes."We paid you to curse!""I can only speak what I see," replied Bilamun.But on the road home, his donkey stopped. <h2>The Donkey Sees</h2>The first time, she stopped at the stairway of the Nilometer and refused to pass.Bilamun struck her. He could not see what she saw: a sword standing in the water at the 4.9-cubit mark, where a lower flood met a higher tax assessment.The second time, she stopped beside a storehouse. Its door stood open. Inside, there was nothing.It had once held the Food Security Pack: seed and fertiliser worth 1.51 billion deben, intended for 320,000 poor farmers.The new scroll contained no allocation for it.Perhaps the seed had been moved to another storehouse. Perhaps not. The scroll did not say.Next door stood the great storehouse of farm inputs. It contained 9.04 billion deben, slightly less than the previous year. Once rising prices were considered, it would buy even less.The third time, the donkey lay down before a granary whose doors were sealed.Bilamun beat her again. This time, the donkey spoke."Am I not the one who carries the load?" she asked. "I carry the wage tax and the market tax. I carry the grain to the granary. And I know what the scribes do not always say aloud."Last year, of every hundred deben the court promised, only 86 reached the road. Of every hundred promised for building, only 72 were spent."And 67 billion deben owed to Pharaoh sit uncollected in the books. Almost exactly what he pays his creditors in a year."ARREARS: 67.0. DEBT SERVICE: 67.6."A full granary feeds no one," said the donkey, "if the door stays shut."Then Bilamun saw the sword. <h2>The Petition of Khunanup</h2>The following morning, a peasant appeared at the palace gate.His name was Khunanup, of the Salt Field. Every scribe knew the type: upright, stubborn and unfortunately eloquent.He had paid every due Pharaoh had ever demanded. During the last great drought, he lost his maize, his goats and most of his savings. Still, he paid.He had not come to curse Pharaoh. He had come to be heard.Three scribes from the Treasury were sent to receive his petition.The first was the Scribe of Taxes."The scroll is fair," he said. "Anyone earning 20,000 deben or less pays not one grain more than last year. Only the rich are asked for more.""Not one grain more than last year?" Khunanup replied. "My son earns 10,000 deben in the city. In the reign of the old measures, that wage paid no tax. Today he pays 13 of every 100. The bands do not move, but prices do. He pays more each year simply for standing still."The second was the Scribe of Granaries."Pharaoh has not forgotten the poor," he said. "The dole rises by more than a third.""I am grateful," Khunanup replied, and he meant it. "But the dole is for households that cannot work. I can work. I am a farmer. I do not want a dole; I want seed."The seed pack is gone from the scroll, and the farm inputs are no larger than last year. In a drought year, seed is what separates a lean season from one we can survive."The third was the Scribe of Accounts."Your daughter can study," he said. "Pharaoh has built an entire new house of skills.""He has," Khunanup replied. "There are 1.95 billion deben for loans to scholars at the great universities, and 1.4 million for bursaries at the trades schools. My daughter wants to become an electrician. Kemet needs electricians. Yet her line in the scroll is less than a thousandth the size of the scholars' allocation."The scribes exchanged glances.They had answers, as scribes always do. The constituency councils also offered bursaries. The skills fund was substantial. The new house was only in its first year.All of it was true.Khunanup bowed."I do not say the scroll is wicked," he said. "I say it was written in a fat year, and it will be read in a lean one." <h2>What Zaphenath-Paneah Knew</h2>That night, Pharaoh sent for the oldest scroll in the royal archive.It contained the counsel of Zaphenath-Paneah, the foreign-born vizier who had once interpreted another Pharaoh's dream of fat cows and lean ones.His advice had been simple.In the years of plenty, take a fifth of the harvest and store it. When the years of want arrive, open the granaries.Pharaoh read it twice.His Kemet had performed the first part well. The granaries were full. More than 2.7 million measures of grain had been purchased, and 9.57 billion deben had been set aside to operate the granary agency and pay for what it had already bought.But Zaphenath-Paneah had raised his levy during the fat years, not the lean. And he had opened the granaries to those who needed them, not only those whose names already appeared on a list.Pharaoh read further, beyond the passage most courtiers remembered.The old scroll recorded what happened when the lean years persisted. First, the people spent their silver. Then they sold their cattle, then their land, and finally themselves, until all of Kemet belonged to the throne.The granary had saved them. It had also come to own them.It was not simply a story about cruelty. It was a story about timing.Relief that arrives early is a safety net. Relief that arrives late becomes a debt. <h2>The Rising</h2>In the season of Akhet, the priests descended the stairway at Abu once more.The river had begun to rise. No one yet knew how far.The scroll would go before the Assembly, where representatives of the nomes would debate it line by line, as they should.Bilamun had blessed it. His donkey had warned against it. Khunanup had asked only that it be judged in the season in which it would be lived.Both could be true.A budget can restore confidence in the treasury and still leave a farmer without seed. It can improve the debt position while failing to collect billions owed to the state. It can promise more revenue without necessarily creating the economic activity needed to sustain it.Pharaoh could raise the tax. He could fill the granaries. He could even insure the land.But the question remained: would the harvest be sufficient to deliver what the scroll promised?Pharaoh stood at the top of the stairway and watched the water creep towards the 4.9-cubit mark.In Kemet, the river kept the accounts.Pharaoh only kept the scroll. <h2>Behind the fable</h2>The story is an allegorical reading of Zambia's 2027 National Budget.Kemet represents Zambia; Pharaoh represents the Government; Nebamun, Overseer of the Two Treasuries, represents the Minister of Finance and National Planning; Grow Kemet represents the Grow Zambia Agenda; and the Assembly represents the National Assembly.One deben represents one kwacha.<h3>The Nilometer and the harvest</h3><ul><li>4.9 cubits: The 2027 GDP growth forecast of 4.9%, against 6% previously projected. The 2026 growth projection is 5.3%.</li><li>The Child of the Warm Sea: El Niño and the anticipated drought during the 2026/2027 rainy season.</li><li>The fat cows: The Food Reserve Agency purchased 2,743,393 tonnes of maize by June 2026, against a target of one million tonnes. The National Food Reserves allocation rises from K2.22 billion to K9.57 billion.</li></ul><h3>The tax assessment</h3><ul><li>Company income tax: K30.06 billion to K42.70 billion, with mining contributing K23.3 billion.</li><li>PAYE: K31.78 billion to K35.37 billion.</li><li>VAT: 16% to 16.5%.</li></ul><h3>Bilamun's blessings</h3><ul><li>Debt service falls from 45.5% of expenditure in 2022 to 23.7%.</li><li>Domestic revenue rises from 58.7% of the Budget in 2021 to 82.1%.</li><li>ZRA collected 98%, 104% and 101% of its targets between 2023 and 2025.</li><li>The fiscal deficit is projected to fall from 5.9% to 3% of GDP.</li><li>Social Cash Transfer rises from K7.65 billion to K10.36 billion, targeting 1,639,034 households.</li><li>Skills Development allocation rises from K531.9 million to K852.7 million.</li><li>Constituency Development Fund rises from K6.25 billion to K9.05 billion.</li><li>Government allocates K21.5 million for drought insurance premiums.</li></ul><h3>The donkey's warnings</h3><ul><li>Food Security Pack: K1.51 billion for 320,000 beneficiaries in 2026, with no allocation identified in the 2027 Budget.</li><li>Farmer Input Support Programme: K9.15 billion to K9.04 billion.</li><li>FY2025 expenditure execution: 86% of the final budget was paid; capital expenditure execution was 72%.</li><li>K67 billion in tax arrears recorded by the Auditor-General, against K67.6 billion in annual debt service.</li></ul><h3>Khunanup's petition</h3><ul><li>PAYE bands remain unchanged for salaries of K20,000 or less.</li><li>A K10,000 salary, expressed in 2027 prices, paid no PAYE in 2014 but faces an effective PAYE rate of 13.3% in 2027.</li><li>Social Cash Transfer targets incapacitated households.</li><li>TEVET bursaries: K1.4 million, against K1.95 billion for student loans and scholarships.</li></ul><h3>The historical references</h3><ul><li>Khunanup: The protagonist of the Middle Kingdom Egyptian text Tale of the Eloquent Peasant, adapted here as a petitioner.</li><li>Bilamun: An allusion to Balaam in Numbers 22–24.</li><li>Zaphenath-Paneah: Joseph's Egyptian name in Genesis 41:45. The advice to store grain appears in Genesis 41:34–36; the subsequent famine and its consequences are described in Genesis 47:13–21.</li><li>Nebamun: A historical Egyptian name associated with scribal and administrative traditions.</li></ul>Sources: KSJ Budget Analysis: The 2027 Budget (8 November 2026); Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure 2027 (Yellow Book), Heads 19, 20, 45, 49, 52 and 89, and revenue estimates; Reuters and Bloomberg reporting on the 2027 growth forecast (October–November 2026).

The Nilometer

Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane will present Zambia’s 2027 National Budget on October 30, against ambitious targets for economic growth, copper production, electricity generation and fiscal consolidation. The proposed fiscal deficit of 0.2% of GDP is particularly striking. But the real test is whether the numbers will hold during implementation — and what the Government’s financing strategy means for businesses.The K19.9 billion supplementary budget proposed for 2026 illustrates the challenge. Agriculture accounts for K15.8 billion, including K14.7 billion to pay farmers who supplied maize to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA). The FRA purchased 2.7 million tonnes against an original target of 500,000 tonnes. Other allocations include K540 million for university tuition and allowances, K422.5 million for Defence and K300 million for contingencies.The financing plan relies on K18 billion in additional domestic borrowing, supplemented by K1.3 billion in additional revenue collections and K510.8 million in donor funding, alongside smaller savings and unspent balances.The maize purchases may be justified by food-security concerns. The fiscal question is whether such expenditure pressures are adequately anticipated in the original budget. When spending significantly exceeds initial estimates, Government must find additional revenue, cut other expenditure or borrow more. A supplementary budget can be necessary, but repeated adjustments make the credibility of the original fiscal targets harder to assess.The bigger question is what domestic borrowing means for the private sector.Government borrowing competes with businesses for financial resources. Banks and institutional investors compare lending to private firms with investing in Treasury bills and Government bonds. When government securities offer attractive returns relative to the risks and costs of commercial lending, financial institutions have an incentive to allocate more funds to them.This is the crowding-out risk: businesses may face higher borrowing costs or reduced access to credit because Government absorbs a larger share of available domestic financing.The effect is not automatic. Domestic borrowing can also mobilise savings, support economic activity and finance necessary public expenditure. Its impact depends on market liquidity, investor demand, the maturity structure of government debt and the availability of alternative funding. But the risk deserves attention when private investment is expected to drive faster economic growth.A lower policy rate does not guarantee cheaper business loans.The Bank of Zambia’s policy rate influences monetary conditions, but commercial lending rates also reflect banks’ funding costs, credit risks, inflation expectations and returns available on alternative investments.If the policy rate declines while Government continues borrowing heavily, attractive Treasury bill and bond yields could limit the reduction in commercial lending rates. Banks may still prefer government securities to loans for businesses perceived as riskier, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises.The result could be a widening gap between monetary easing and the financing conditions businesses actually experience. A lower policy rate would offer limited relief to an SME if its working-capital loan remains expensive or its application is rejected.This matters for investment in machinery, inventories, construction and expansion. Zambia cannot sustainably pursue growth of 6–7% while productive businesses struggle to access affordable finance.The scale of refinancing also matters. Government’s 2026 Annual Borrowing Plan projected K106 billion in gross domestic borrowing, including substantial refinancing of maturing debt. Gross borrowing should not be confused with new deficit financing: much of it replaces existing obligations. Nevertheless, refinancing requires Government to return to the domestic market, while debt-service payments continue to place pressure on public resources.Zambia is therefore managing two related challenges: financing current expenditure and refinancing past borrowing. The 2027 Budget needs to show how both can be managed without undermining private investment.The Government’s Grow Zambia Agenda provides the economic rationale for getting this balance right. Higher copper production should create opportunities for local suppliers and exporters. More electricity should support mines, manufacturers and agricultural businesses. Higher agricultural output should strengthen rural incomes and food security.The test is whether public expenditure expands productive capacity and generates future economic returns, rather than simply increasing spending.For the 2027 Budget, three questions deserve particular attention: Are the revenue and expenditure assumptions realistic? How much domestic financing will Government require, including refinancing? And will its borrowing strategy leave sufficient capital available for businesses?The projected 0.2% deficit is an important headline, but the private sector will judge the Budget partly by what happens to credit availability, lending rates and investment.The central trade-off is clear: Government must finance its obligations while creating room for businesses to finance growth. Fiscal consolidation and private-sector investment can reinforce each other, but only if the financing strategy supports both.On October 30, the important question will not simply be how much Government plans to spend. It will be whether the Budget can deliver fiscal discipline without making productive investment harder to finance.

Zambia’s 2027 Budget: The real test is whether the numbers hold

What does Lusaka look like inside a video game?For Japhet Gondwe, the answer involves more than putting a few Zambian street names on a fictional map.Gondwe is the founder of Redcode Studios, a Lusaka-based creative technology studio working across software, games, digital art and 3D design.Its latest and most ambitious experiment is Jila, a driving game being built in Zambia and around Zambia.Instead of creating another fictional city modelled loosely on familiar Western game environments, Redcode chose a place its developers know firsthand.Lusaka.That means recreating roads, buildings, bus stops, markets, vehicles, roadside stalls and other details that give the capital its visual character.Players can race, compete for leaderboard times, work taxi routes, drive buses or simply cruise around the city.But Jila is also becoming something beyond a game.It is an exercise in digital art, 3D modelling and local visual storytelling.The team has been creating vehicles, characters, buildings, signs and environments while testing how much detail the game can handle.Some of those experiments have involved deliberately pushing scenes with thousands of vehicles to find the point where the technology begins to struggle.Jila reached Google Play in September 2026 and remains under active development.<a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.redcodestudios.jila" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Jila website</a><h3>From games to business software</h3>Jila may be Redcode's most visually distinctive project, but it is far from the studio's only experiment.Before the game, much of its work focused on solving more conventional business problems.Inkline is a business management and accounting platform covering invoices, expenses, customers, suppliers, stock and financial records.The premise is relatively straightforward: smaller businesses still need useful management information, but do not necessarily need systems designed around the complexity of multinational corporations.<a href="https://inklinehq.web.app/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Inkline</a>Then there is ByteMart, which began as a marketplace before expanding into tools for sellers, including digital catalogues, inventory management and structured product information.The team has experimented with turning information from handwritten stock lists and WhatsApp catalogues into usable digital product data.It is a practical response to a common problem: businesses may already have the information they need, but it is often trapped in formats that are difficult for software to process.<a href="https://bytemart.web.app/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ByteMart</a><h3>Making property discovery less fragmented</h3>Redcode has also ventured into property technology with Bondi.The platform was built around a familiar experience for Zambian property seekers — moving between Facebook posts, WhatsApp groups, agents and word of mouth in search of a house, apartment, piece of land or commercial property.Bondi brings listings into a searchable platform while allowing landlords, owners and agents to publish properties.Verification indicators, reporting tools and warnings around unverified listings form part of the platform's approach to safety.Bondi has surpassed 1,000 downloads on Google Play.<a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.redcode.bondi&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Bondi on Google Play</a><h3>An experimental history</h3>Redcode did not begin with Jila.Earlier projects included Loc'd In, a community-focused application centred around locs and natural hair, Abekala Chalo, and the colour game I Choose Hue.Not every experiment became a major product.But that appears to be part of the studio's philosophy.Build something. Release it. See how people use it. Learn what does not work. Then carry those lessons into the next project.The studio's Google Play catalogue effectively documents that evolution.<h3>Where software meets art</h3>The word "Studios" in Redcode's name is deliberate.The company works across software engineering and creative production, including UI/UX design, branding, illustration, digital artwork, 3D modelling and environment design.Jila has brought these disciplines together particularly clearly.A game set in Lusaka creates questions that cannot be solved with code alone.What should a Zambian market stall look like?Which vehicles belong on a particular road?How should a roadside environment be represented?What makes a digital character feel like they belong in the setting?Each becomes a design problem as well as a technical one.That intersection of technology, art and local context is increasingly becoming part of Redcode's identity. <h2>In Conversation with Japhet Gondwe</h2>KSJ: Redcode describes itself as more than a software company. What does being a creative technology studio mean to you?Japhet Gondwe: For us, software is only one part of the work. We are interested in the combination of code, design, art, storytelling and experimentation. Sometimes that leads to business software, sometimes a marketplace, and sometimes a game. We don't want to limit ourselves to one category.KSJ: Why was it important to build Jila around Lusaka?Gondwe: We know Lusaka. It is the environment we live in, so we thought it would be interesting to see what happens when we build a game around a place we actually understand instead of creating another generic fictional city. It also gives us an opportunity to explore what Zambia can look like in a digital world.KSJ: What has surprised you most about developing Jila?Gondwe: The amount of work involved in making a place feel authentic. It is not just about putting roads on a map. You start thinking about buildings, signs, vehicles, market stalls, lighting and all the small things people normally don't notice. It becomes a huge art and technical project.KSJ: Redcode has worked on several very different products. How do you decide what to build next?Gondwe: A lot of it starts with curiosity. If we think something would be interesting or useful to exist, we ask whether we can build it. We experiment, release things and learn from what happens. Some ideas work better than others, but the process itself teaches us something.KSJ: What do you think is missing from the way technology is built in Zambia?Gondwe: I think there is room for more experimentation. We don't always have to start by asking what has already worked somewhere else and then reproduce it here. We can also start with our own environment and ask what technology makes sense from where we are.KSJ: Where do you see Redcode going from here?Gondwe: We want to keep building and experimenting across software, games and creative technology. Jila is still developing, and there are always new things we want to try. The main thing is to keep making things and learning from them.<h3>Building from Zambia</h3>That philosophy perhaps explains Redcode better than any individual product.It is not simply trying to reproduce Silicon Valley products with a Zambian label.Its approach is more grounded in local problems, local environments and the curiosity to see what can be built.A property platform because property discovery is fragmented.Accounting software because small businesses need better tools.A marketplace because sellers need more than a place to list products.And a driving game because someone wondered what Lusaka would look like as a digital world.For a small studio in Lusaka, the ambition is notable not because every experiment will necessarily succeed, but because the studio is willing to build, release, test and try again.Sometimes innovation is a new piece of technology.Sometimes it is simply taking something familiar and asking:What if we built it ourselves?For Japhet Gondwe and Redcode Studios, that question has already produced a growing collection of software, games and digital worlds — increasingly shaped by the place from which they are being built.Redcode Studios — Lusaka, Zambia<a href="https://redcodestudios.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Redcode Studios</a><a href="https://zm.linkedin.com/in/japhet-gondwe-95b790194?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Japhet Gondwe on LinkedIn</a>

Japhet Gondwe and the Lusaka Studio Building Zambia in Code

&nbsp;A new bond from Zanaco may sound like a story for bankers and pension funds. But its real significance could eventually be felt by businesses looking for money to buy equipment, expand farms, install solar power or build new infrastructure.Zanaco has announced a US$100 million Medium-Term Note Programme, starting with a planned US$50 million sustainability bond.It is the first sustainability bond issued by a Zambian bank, according to the Lusaka Securities Exchange.The idea is relatively simple: investors provide Zanaco with capital, and the money raised is intended to support projects with defined environmental and social benefits.That includes areas such as renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture, energy efficiency, affordable housing, healthcare, education and financial inclusion.For Zambian businesses, the interesting question is not really what a sustainability bond is.It is whether it creates another source of money for productive investment.<h3>So, what changes for a business?</h3>Imagine a farming company that wants to invest in irrigation.The investment could improve production for years, but the equipment requires substantial money upfront. The same applies to a manufacturer wanting to install solar power, a property developer building more energy-efficient housing, or an SME investing in equipment that reduces its energy costs.Traditionally, such businesses might rely on conventional bank loans, shareholder capital or retained earnings.Sustainability finance introduces another possibility.Capital raised through the bond can be channelled into qualifying projects, potentially expanding the amount of financing available for businesses whose activities meet the relevant sustainability criteria.Zanaco's existing green-finance framework already identifies areas including renewable energy, resource efficiency, green buildings, climate-smart agriculture, aquaculture, forestry and waste management.<h3>But this is not a cheap-money announcement</h3>There is an important caveat.The US$50 million does not mean every SME will suddenly be able to borrow at lower interest rates.Businesses will still have to qualify for financing, and projects will need to meet the requirements attached to sustainability funding.For some companies, therefore, the immediate impact may be limited.The bigger opportunity is the possibility of more capital being directed towards particular types of investment.<h3>Agriculture could be one of the biggest beneficiaries</h3>Agriculture provides a good example of why this matters.Irrigation, storage, solar-powered equipment, efficient processing and other climate-smart investments can make businesses more productive and resilient. But many require significant capital before they start generating returns.If sustainable finance helps fund those investments, the benefits can extend beyond an individual company.A better irrigation system can increase production. Better storage can reduce losses. More efficient processing can create additional value from agricultural output.That is where financial-market developments begin to connect with the real economy.<h3>And SMEs should pay attention</h3>For a small business, the language of sustainable finance can sometimes sound distant.But the underlying question is familiar: Where can I get the money to grow?A sustainability-finance pipeline could become relevant to SMEs investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture and other qualifying activities.Zanaco says the programme is intended to support entrepreneurs and SMEs alongside farmers and communities requiring social infrastructure.The eventual impact, however, will depend on the financing terms, eligibility requirements and how effectively the money reaches viable projects.<h3>Why the bond matters beyond Zanaco</h3>There is also a bigger story developing in Zambia's financial markets.The country needs capital for productive investment, while investors — particularly institutional investors — need opportunities to deploy long-term funds.A sustainability bond attempts to connect those two needs.Instead of capital simply moving through the financial system, it is tied to a defined set of environmental and social investments.The Lusaka Securities Exchange has described the transaction as a new chapter for Zambia's capital markets and indicated that it wants to work with stakeholders to develop a pipeline of future thematic bonds.That could eventually lead to more specialised financing instruments for sectors such as energy, agriculture, housing and infrastructure.<h3>The real test starts after the headline</h3>US$100 million makes for an impressive headline.But the more important story will be what happens after the money is raised.Which businesses receive financing?What are the interest rates and repayment periods?How many SMEs can actually access it?How much goes into productive investment rather than simply refinancing existing obligations?And does the financing generate measurable economic activity?Those questions will determine whether sustainability finance becomes more than a new label in Zambia's banking sector.For businesses, the message for now is straightforward: a new pool of capital is being created around projects that meet sustainability criteria.The opportunity will be in understanding the criteria — and positioning viable projects to qualify.For Zambia's financial system, meanwhile, Zanaco's bond marks an important shift: sustainability is increasingly becoming not just a development concept, but a way of organising and mobilising capital.

Zanaco’s $100 Million Sustainability Bond: What It Could Mean for Zambian Businesses

For Zambia, a rise in US government bond yields is more than a Wall Street development. It can influence how expensive it becomes for the country to borrow abroad, how investors price Zambian assets and how much pressure the kwacha faces against the dollar.The yield on the US 30-year Treasury rose to around 5.44% on Thursday, its highest level since 2004, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed above 5.1%.The move matters because US Treasury yields form a reference point for borrowing costs across much of the global financial system. When those yields rise, emerging markets such as Zambia can face higher financing costs even when their own domestic interest rates have not changed.The immediate trigger was a combination of stronger-than-expected US economic activity, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and rising oil prices.For Zambia, however, the bigger question is what a prolonged period of higher global interest rates means for a country still rebuilding its fiscal and external position after years of debt stress.<h3>Why Zambia should pay attention</h3>US Treasury securities sit at the centre of the global financial system. They are widely used as a benchmark for pricing other forms of debt.When Treasury yields rise, investors can demand higher returns from riskier assets as well.For an emerging market such as Zambia, that can increase the cost of accessing international capital.A Zambian government or company seeking to borrow in international markets does not compete with US Treasuries on equal terms. Investors generally demand an additional risk premium for lending to countries perceived to carry greater economic, currency or credit risk.If the underlying US interest rate rises, the overall cost of borrowing can therefore increase even if Zambia's own risk premium remains unchanged.<h3>The dollar channel</h3>Higher US yields can also make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to international investors.That can contribute to capital moving towards US markets and away from some emerging markets.For Zambia, movements in the dollar are particularly important because much of the country's external debt and international trade is denominated in foreign currencies.A stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of servicing dollar-denominated obligations and make imports more expensive.The effect is not automatic. Exchange rates also depend on copper export receipts, domestic monetary policy, foreign-exchange supply and demand, inflation and investor confidence.<h3>Copper provides a counterweight</h3>Zambia has an important advantage that many emerging markets do not: copper.Strong copper prices can increase export earnings and foreign-exchange inflows, providing support for the kwacha and improving the country's external position.But copper cannot completely shield Zambia from global financial conditions.If international interest rates remain elevated, investors may still become more selective about emerging-market assets. The country can therefore benefit from stronger commodity revenues while simultaneously facing a more expensive global financing environment.<h3>The debt lesson</h3>The latest Treasury move also underlines why Zambia's debt restructuring is only one part of the country's long-term financing challenge.Even after restructuring, future borrowing will be priced against prevailing international interest rates and the risk investors attach to Zambia.This makes fiscal discipline, export earnings, foreign-exchange reserves and the credibility of economic policy important determinants of future borrowing costs.For policymakers, the implication is straightforward: Zambia cannot influence the Federal Reserve, but it can influence how exposed the country is to changes in global financial conditions.The rise in US Treasury yields is therefore a reminder that Zambia's economic fortunes are shaped not only by what happens in Lusaka or Copperbelt mining towns, but also by decisions made in Washington and movements in global capital markets.When the price of money rises in America, emerging markets eventually feel it — and Zambia is no exception.

US Bond Yields Rise, Putting Zambia on Notice

Wall Street took a step back on Wednesday as rising Treasury yields, renewed tensions around Iran and weakness in some of the biggest technology names combined to put pressure on US stocks.The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.65% to 7,714.35 points, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.07% to 26,953.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.54% at 51,583.98.Much of the day's attention, however, was outside the stock market.Oil prices climbed more than 3% after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the United Nations that Tehran would not surrender to US pressure. His comments came a day after US President Donald Trump warned that the US could "annihilate" Iran.The immediate market concern is straightforward: a deeper Middle East confrontation could disrupt energy markets and push inflation higher.That was reflected in energy stocks. The S&amp;P 500 energy sector gained about 1%, while higher oil prices added another layer of uncertainty for investors already watching interest rates closely. <h2>Rates are back in the conversation</h2>The bigger story for Wall Street, though, may be the bond market.A survey of US business activity showed the economy accelerating to its strongest pace in more than five years in September. The stronger economic data pushed Treasury yields higher as investors reassessed the path of US interest rates.Two-year Treasury yields reached their highest level since 2024, while the 10-year yield touched its highest level since 2007.For equity investors, that matters because higher yields increase the return available from relatively safer government debt while also raising borrowing costs for companies and consumers.The market is therefore facing a familiar tension: a stronger economy is good news in isolation, but if that strength keeps inflation elevated, the Federal Reserve may have less room to cut rates.Traders were pricing in a 71% probability of another Fed rate increase at the October meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr also said further rate increases may be necessary, with inflation still above the central bank's 2% target. <h2>Big Tech shows cracks</h2>Technology stocks, which had helped push Wall Street towards record highs in recent sessions, were among Wednesday's notable decliners.Alphabet fell 3.5%, while Amazon dropped 2.4%. Nvidia declined 1.6%, contributing to a 1.4% fall in the PHLX semiconductor index.Meta, however, moved in the opposite direction, gaining 2.3%. The company's shares have now risen about 13% this week following a strong reception for its "Muse" AI assistant.The contrasting performance highlights an increasingly important feature of the AI trade: investors are no longer treating every technology company as an automatic winner from the AI boom.AI is creating opportunities for companies providing computing infrastructure and software, while potentially disrupting established businesses in areas ranging from advertising and banking to online commerce.Amazon's decision to block Muse from its shopping platform adds another dimension to that competition.Travel companies also had a difficult session, with Expedia and Airbnb both falling more than 6%. <h2>The market is still close to its highs</h2>Despite Wednesday's pullback, the broader market remains relatively elevated.The Nasdaq had recorded record-high closes in each of the previous two sessions, while the S&amp;P 500 remains less than 2% below its record closing level from August 13.The S&amp;P 500 is trading at just under 19 times expected earnings, according to LSEG data. Much of the improvement in earnings expectations has been driven by major companies linked to the AI investment cycle.That leaves investors balancing two very different stories.On one side is a US economy showing considerable strength and an AI sector still attracting enormous investor interest.On the other is a combination of geopolitical risk, higher oil prices and rising bond yields that could keep interest rates higher for longer.For markets, the question is increasingly whether economic strength can continue without producing another round of inflation pressure.For now, Wednesday's trading suggested investors are becoming less willing to ignore that risk.

Wall Street Pulls Back as Oil Rises and Rate Fears Return

Every fortnight the Bank of Zambia auctions Treasury bills, and every fortnight a small number of people read the results very carefully. Here is why the rest of the country should care. [[chart:yield-curve-tbills]]A yield is simply the return the government has to promise to get investors to lend it money for a fixed period. When the 91-day yield rises, the government is paying more to borrow for three months — usually because banks have better things to do with their kwacha, or because they expect inflation to erode what they get back.<h3>The spread is the story</h3>The gap between short and long yields is where the information lives. A steep curve — long rates well above short ones — says the market expects growth and tolerable inflation. A flat or inverted curve says the opposite, and it says it earlier than most official forecasts do.These charts read directly from the KSJ economic database, which carries monthly Zambian macro data going back to 2011.

Treasury bill yields, bond yields and the spread between them — a plain-English guide to the most quoted numbers in Lusaka finance.

Reading the Yield Curve: What Zambia's Borrowing Costs Are Signalling

&nbsp;Zambia is set to join a new J.P. Morgan benchmark for frontier-market government bonds, giving its kwacha-denominated debt greater visibility among international institutional investors.J.P. Morgan plans to launch the Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Edge (GBI-EM Edge) by the end of September, covering nearly US$330 billion in local-currency government debt across 26 frontier economies.African markets are expected to account for almost 45 percent of the index, according to an investor note reviewed by Reuters. Zambia, alongside markets including Angola, Egypt, Morocco and Nigeria, is among the African countries expected to qualify.For Zambia, the significance is less about an immediate injection of foreign capital and more about gaining a place on a benchmark watched by global fixed-income investors.J.P. Morgan's bond indices are used by asset managers to measure portfolio performance and, in some cases, construct investment portfolios. Inclusion can therefore place Zambian government securities in front of investors who may not otherwise actively consider the country's relatively small domestic bond market.But inclusion does not mean that J.P. Morgan is investing US$330 billion in Zambia or distributing that amount among the countries in the index. The figure represents the approximate value of eligible debt tracked by the benchmark. Actual capital flows will depend on how many investment managers follow the index and the size of the funds they manage.<h3>Zambia had to make its bonds large enough</h3>The development also highlights changes underway in Zambia's domestic government securities market.J.P. Morgan's rules require eligible bonds to have at least US$250 million equivalent in outstanding value and at least 2.5 years remaining to maturity, while no country can account for more than 8 percent of the index.The minimum bond-size requirement had raised questions about whether Zambia would qualify. Reuters reported that Zambia's efforts to increase the size of its benchmark securities enabled it to meet the threshold.The Bank of Zambia has been deliberately working to create larger and more liquid benchmark securities. Under changes introduced in 2026, benchmark bonds have a minimum target outstanding size of K10 billion, with the central bank reopening existing benchmark bonds to build them towards that level.Government bond auctions were also increased to K6.3 billion per auction in the second quarter of 2026, with auctions scheduled twice during the quarter.The reforms are important because size and liquidity matter to institutional investors. A large bond that trades regularly is easier for a fund manager to enter and exit than a small, thinly traded security.<h3>Foreign participation is already increasing</h3>Zambia's inclusion comes as foreign participation in the domestic government bond market has been expanding.The Bank of Zambia raised the ceiling for non-resident participation in primary government bond auctions from 5 percent to 23 percent of planned annual issuance in January 2026.During the first quarter, demand for government bonds exceeded the amounts offered by an average 175.3 percent, with the Bank of Zambia attributing the strong demand partly to substantial participation by non-resident investors.That provides an important backdrop to the J.P. Morgan development: international investors were already showing greater interest in Zambia's domestic debt before the new index is launched.<h3>A changing macroeconomic backdrop</h3>The index inclusion also comes against an improvement in some of Zambia's macroeconomic indicators.Annual inflation fell to 6.2 percent in August 2026, from 6.5 percent in July, according to the Zambia Statistics Agency.The IMF said in May that Zambia had made substantial progress in consolidating macroeconomic stabilisation, while gross international reserves had risen to US$6.4 billion, equivalent to 4.4 months of prospective imports. The Fund also noted continuing fiscal pressures and the need for further reforms to reduce the domestic interest burden and strengthen fiscal resilience.These factors matter to investors because the attractiveness of a kwacha-denominated bond is determined not only by its coupon or yield, but also by expectations about inflation, fiscal policy, exchange-rate movements and the government's ability to manage its debt.<h3>What it could mean for borrowing costs</h3>If index inclusion leads to sustained foreign demand, Zambia could benefit from a deeper and more liquid government bond market.A broader investor base could increase demand for kwacha-denominated securities and potentially reduce the yield investors require to hold them. Government bond yields also serve as reference rates for other borrowing in the economy, meaning lower sovereign funding costs could eventually influence financing conditions for banks and companies.There is, however, no guarantee that this will happen.Frontier-market bonds offer higher yields partly because investors take on greater currency, liquidity and sovereign risks. J.P. Morgan expects the new index to have an estimated average yield of about 10.4 percent, roughly 4.4 percentage points above its mainstream emerging-market local-currency bond index.For an international investor, a high kwacha bond yield can be offset by a depreciation of the currency against the dollar. Investors can also withdraw quickly from smaller markets when global interest rates rise or risk appetite deteriorates.That makes index inclusion a gateway to capital, rather than a guarantee of cheaper borrowing.For Zambia, the more immediate significance is that its domestic bond market is increasingly being structured around the requirements of international institutional investors: larger benchmark securities, greater liquidity and wider access for non-residents.After years in which Zambia's international financial-market profile was dominated by debt distress and restructuring, the inclusion in J.P. Morgan's frontier-market benchmark provides another indication that the country's domestic capital market is being reconnected to global investors.The next test will be whether that visibility translates into sustained investment, deeper market liquidity and, ultimately, a lower cost of financing for the Zambian government and the wider economy.

Zambia Enters New J.P. Morgan Frontier Bond Index

Bond yields are among the most closely watched indicators in financial markets, but they are often discussed as though investors are expected to understand what they mean.At their simplest, bond yields tell investors what return the market is demanding for lending money for a particular period. But changes in yields can also provide clues about expectations for inflation, interest rates, government borrowing and economic growth.For investors, understanding the movement can sometimes be as important as understanding the level. <h2>What Is a Bond Yield?</h2>A bond is essentially a loan.When an investor buys a government bond, for example, the government receives money today and promises to make specified payments before returning the principal at maturity.The yield is the return an investor expects to receive from holding the bond, based on its price and payments.The important point is that bond prices and yields generally move in opposite directions.If demand for an existing bond increases, its price rises. Because the bond's payments have not changed, the effective return to a new buyer falls.If investors sell the bond and its price falls, its yield rises.This relationship is fundamental to understanding bond markets. <h2>Why Do Yields Move?</h2>Several factors can push yields higher or lower.<h3>Interest-rate expectations</h3>Central banks influence short-term interest rates, and markets constantly assess where those rates could be heading.If investors expect interest rates to remain high, yields on many bonds can rise as investors demand greater returns.Conversely, expectations of lower future rates can contribute to falling yields, particularly at shorter maturities.<h3>Inflation</h3>Inflation matters because investors care about their real return—the return after accounting for changes in purchasing power.If a bond offers a 10% nominal yield while inflation is 8%, the approximate real return before taxes and other considerations is only 2%.When investors expect higher inflation, they may demand higher nominal yields to compensate.<h3>Government borrowing</h3>Governments frequently issue bonds to finance deficits and refinance existing debt.If the supply of government debt increases substantially, investors may demand higher yields, particularly if there are concerns about the government's ability or willingness to manage its debt burden.But supply is only one part of the equation. Strong demand for government securities can absorb additional issuance without producing a corresponding increase in yields.<h3>Economic growth</h3>Bond yields can also reflect expectations about economic activity.Stronger expected growth may increase expectations for inflation and higher interest rates, putting upward pressure on yields.Weak economic expectations can have the opposite effect as investors seek relatively predictable income and anticipate easier monetary policy. <h2>What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us?</h2>One of the most useful ways to read the bond market is through the yield curve.The yield curve compares yields across different maturities, such as two-year, five-year and ten-year government bonds.Normally, longer-term bonds offer higher yields because investors are committing their money for longer and face greater uncertainty.But the curve can take different shapes.A steepening curve may indicate that long-term yields are rising relative to short-term yields. This can reflect changing expectations around inflation, economic growth or government borrowing.A flattening curve means the difference between short- and long-term yields is narrowing.An inverted curve, where shorter-term yields exceed longer-term yields, has historically attracted attention because it can occur when markets expect future interest rates and economic activity to weaken.None of these signals should be interpreted in isolation. <h2>What Does This Mean for a Zambian Investor?</h2>For a Zambian investor, the headline government bond yield should be only the starting point.The first question is: what is the yield after inflation?A bond yielding 15% may appear attractive, but if inflation is running at 12%, the difference between the nominal yield and inflation is much smaller than the headline number suggests. Investors therefore need to distinguish between the return stated on the bond and the return in terms of purchasing power.The second question is: what is happening to the exchange rate?A Zambian investor who measures wealth partly in US dollars may experience a very different outcome from one measuring returns entirely in kwacha. A high kwacha bond yield does not automatically translate into a high foreign-currency return if the kwacha depreciates significantly during the investment period.The third question is: what is driving the yield?A high yield can reflect attractive income, but it can also reflect higher perceived risk, inflation expectations, fiscal pressures or uncertainty about future monetary conditions. The number needs to be interpreted alongside the conditions producing it.The fourth question is: how long is the money being locked up?A longer-dated government bond may offer a higher yield, but it also exposes an investor to greater interest-rate and price risk if the investor needs to sell before maturity.This creates an important distinction between an investor who intends to hold a bond to maturity and one who may need to trade it before maturity. <h2>A Simple Zambia Investor Dashboard</h2>For someone following Zambia's fixed-income market, five indicators provide a useful starting point:1. Government bond yieldsTrack yields across different maturities rather than focusing on one bond.2. InflationCompare nominal yields with the inflation environment to assess the potential real return.3. Monetary policyWatch the direction of interest rates and the signals coming from the Bank of Zambia.4. Exchange rateConsider how movements in the kwacha could affect returns, particularly for investors who think in foreign-currency terms.5. Fiscal and debt developmentsGovernment borrowing requirements, debt restructuring developments and the overall fiscal position can influence how investors price government securities.Together, these indicators provide more information than the bond yield alone. <h2>The Key Takeaway for Zambia</h2>For Zambian investors, a high bond yield should not automatically be interpreted as a high return.The more useful question is: <blockquote>What does the yield compensate me for?</blockquote>It may compensate for inflation. It may reflect interest-rate expectations. It may reflect the time commitment involved in holding the bond. It may reflect fiscal or credit concerns. Or it may simply reflect prevailing market conditions.The answer matters because two bonds with apparently attractive yields can carry very different economic implications.An investor considering Zambian government securities should therefore look at the yield, inflation, maturity, interest-rate environment, exchange rate and fiscal conditions together.That is the central lesson of reading bond markets: the yield is the price of the opportunity—and the risks embedded in that opportunity.For Zambia, understanding those risks is particularly important because nominal returns can look very different from real and foreign-currency-adjusted returns.

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Bond Yields and What They Signal for Investors

A decision made by a central bank thousands of kilometres away can eventually show up in the price of imports, the value of a currency and the cost of borrowing in Zambia.Interest rates are usually presented as domestic policy decisions.The US Federal Reserve changes its policy rate to influence the American economy. The European Central Bank does the same for the euro area. But in an increasingly interconnected financial system, these decisions rarely remain within their own borders.For emerging markets, changes in global interest rates can have very real consequences.<h3>It starts with investors</h3>International investors are constantly comparing returns.When interest rates in advanced economies rise, government bonds and other assets in those markets can become more attractive relative to riskier emerging-market investments.Some investors may therefore reduce their exposure to emerging markets and move funds into assets perceived as safer or offering better risk-adjusted returns.The reverse can happen when global rates decline.Lower returns in advanced economies can push investors to search for yield in emerging and frontier markets.These movements can influence the availability and cost of foreign capital.<h3>The currency channel</h3>One of the most visible effects can appear in foreign-exchange markets.If international investors reduce their holdings of local assets, demand for the local currency can weaken. Depreciation can follow.For an economy that imports fuel, machinery, medicines, food or industrial inputs, this matters.A weaker currency means that the same dollar-priced import costs more in local currency.That can feed into domestic inflation.Central banks may then face a difficult balancing act. Cutting interest rates could support economic activity, but doing so while the currency and inflation are under pressure may create additional risks.<h3>Governments feel it too</h3>The impact does not stop with private investors.Emerging-market governments often rely on domestic and international borrowing to finance public expenditure and investment.When global interest rates rise, international borrowing can become more expensive. Investors may also demand higher yields to compensate for the increased opportunity cost and perceived risk of holding emerging-market debt.Foreign-currency debt creates another vulnerability.If the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the domestic-currency cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt increases even if the amount owed in dollars has not changed.This can place additional pressure on government budgets.<h3>Why Zambia is exposed</h3>Zambia provides a useful illustration of these transmission channels.The country is integrated into global markets through trade, investment and external financing. Copper exports generate foreign exchange, while the economy also depends on imported fuel, machinery and other goods.Global financial conditions therefore matter.A change in the attractiveness of US or European assets can influence international investor appetite for emerging and frontier markets. Changes in commodity prices can simultaneously affect Zambia's export earnings and foreign-exchange position.The result is that the impact of a global interest-rate shift is not necessarily straightforward.A period of higher global rates may create pressure through financing costs and capital flows, while strong copper prices could provide an offset through higher export receipts.Domestic policy and economic fundamentals matter as well.<h3>Not every emerging market experiences the same shock</h3>The phrase "emerging markets" can sometimes make very different economies sound identical.They are not.A country with substantial foreign-exchange reserves, strong export earnings and relatively manageable external debt may respond differently to a global rate increase than a country with large external financing needs and weak reserves.The structure of the economy matters too.Commodity exporters, for example, may benefit from rising prices for their major exports even as tighter global financial conditions create pressure elsewhere.This is why global interest rates should be understood as one part of a larger transmission mechanism rather than a single cause of economic outcomes.<h3>From Washington to Lusaka</h3>The important point is that monetary policy has become increasingly global in its consequences.A rate decision in Washington can influence international capital flows.Capital flows can affect exchange rates.Exchange-rate movements can influence import prices and inflation.Global borrowing costs can affect government financing.And these pressures can eventually feed into decisions made by businesses, households and policymakers in countries far from the original decision.The chain is not always immediate, and it does not operate in exactly the same way everywhere.But it helps explain why emerging-market economies pay close attention to decisions made by the world's major central banks.For countries such as Zambia, understanding this connection is increasingly important.The price of money is globalising, even when economic policy remains largely national.

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How Shifts in Global Interest Rates Reach Emerging Markets

A recent Katondo Street Journal analysis by economist Kampamba Shula, “What Does HH’s Re-election Mean for the Zambian Economy?”, <a href="https://www.katondostreet.com/article/what-does-hhs-re-election-mean-for-the-zambian-economy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.katondostreet.com/article/what-does-hhs-re-election-mean-for-the-zambian-economy</a> is a timely contribution to the debate on Zambia’s economic direction. It correctly identifies the next challenge as converting macroeconomic stability into jobs, stronger businesses, reliable energy, higher incomes and greater value from Zambia’s natural resources.I would go further and name the objective that should sit beneath all these priorities. The purpose of economic development is to enable people to live comfortably, with rising and sustainable incomes, and to progressively gain access to the quality of goods, services, technology, infrastructure and opportunities enjoyed in successful economies, without being suffocated by unproductive debt. That is what economic transformation should mean for ordinary Zambians.<h2>The debt-service train is still coming</h2>The metaphor of an oncoming train captures the reality of Zambia’s rescheduled debt-service obligations. Without substantially higher household and national incomes before that train gathers speed, the future debt burden could once again overwhelm the economy.The G20 Common Framework restructuring bought Zambia breathing space, but it deferred and reprofiled the burden rather than eliminating it. What we do with that space is therefore critical. It must be used to increase productivity, expand enterprise ownership, diversify the economy, deepen value addition and, above all, ensure incomes rise substantially before the heavier obligations crystallise.The trajectory ahead requires preparation rather than complacency.2026–2028: Escalation window. Amortisation on restructured Eurobonds begins, with coupon rates stepping up from approximately 5.75% to 7.5%. Annual external debt-service requirements are expected to move into the US$450–650 million range.2029–2031 and beyond: Peak obligations. Principal repayments under official-creditor arrangements increasingly combine with commercial debt-servicing. Annual obligations could rise towards US$700–750 million or more.The precise path will depend on final restructuring arrangements, economic performance and market conditions, but the direction is clear. Zambia must deliberately build the income-generating capacity of its economy before the debt-service train arrives. For more see full article on Zambian Economist Below:<a href="https://zambianeconomist.com/zambia-msmes-debt-restructuring-income-growth/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zambianeconomist.com/zambia-msmes-debt-restructuring-income-growth/</a>

From Economic Stabilisation to a Broad-Based Economy: The Role of MSMEs in the Next Five Years

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