A recent Katondo Street Journal analysis by economist Kampamba Shula, “What Does HH’s Re-election Mean for the Zambian Economy?”,
https://www.katondostreet.com/article/what-does-hhs-re-election-mean-for-the-zambian-economy
is a timely contribution to the debate on Zambia’s economic direction. It correctly identifies the next challenge as converting macroeconomic stability into jobs, stronger businesses, reliable energy, higher incomes and greater value from Zambia’s natural resources.
I would go further and name the objective that should sit beneath all these priorities. The purpose of economic development is to enable people to live comfortably, with rising and sustainable incomes, and to progressively gain access to the quality of goods, services, technology, infrastructure and opportunities enjoyed in successful economies, without being suffocated by unproductive debt. That is what economic transformation should mean for ordinary Zambians.
The debt-service train is still coming
The metaphor of an oncoming train captures the reality of Zambia’s rescheduled debt-service obligations. Without substantially higher household and national incomes before that train gathers speed, the future debt burden could once again overwhelm the economy.
The G20 Common Framework restructuring bought Zambia breathing space, but it deferred and reprofiled the burden rather than eliminating it. What we do with that space is therefore critical. It must be used to increase productivity, expand enterprise ownership, diversify the economy, deepen value addition and, above all, ensure incomes rise substantially before the heavier obligations crystallise.
The trajectory ahead requires preparation rather than complacency.
2026–2028: Escalation window. Amortisation on restructured Eurobonds begins, with coupon rates stepping up from approximately 5.75% to 7.5%. Annual external debt-service requirements are expected to move into the US$450–650 million range.
2029–2031 and beyond: Peak obligations. Principal repayments under official-creditor arrangements increasingly combine with commercial debt-servicing. Annual obligations could rise towards US$700–750 million or more.
The precise path will depend on final restructuring arrangements, economic performance and market conditions, but the direction is clear. Zambia must deliberately build the income-generating capacity of its economy before the debt-service train arrives.
For more see full article on Zambian Economist Below:
https://zambianeconomist.com/zambia-msmes-debt-restructuring-income-growth/
